The scope of the project was the computation of ground-up and gross losses for Californian building portfolios of a private insurance company considering the most up-to-date hazard definitions and loss assessment methodologies. The project comprised the development of a software platform for the probabilistic evaluation of earthquake hazard and losses able to:
- Generate stochastic catalogs of earthquake ruptures from the USGS Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 and 3 hazard models (UCERF2 and UCERF3, both Time-Independent and Time-Dependent models). In the case of UCERF3 model, stochastic catalogs can be created considering any branch of the logic tree defined by USGS to describe the earthquake occurrence. Each event in the catalog is defined by its characteristics, such as the three-dimensional geometry of the rupture plane, the rupture mechanism, the magnitude, the date of occurrence, etc.
- Compute the distribution of ground motion intensity in terms of spectral acceleration at any given site in the region affected by an earthquake rupture according to different Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs). The computation of the distribution of the intensity measure selected can be performed according any GMPE of the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) Relationships for Western US sets (NGA-West and NGA-West 2).
- Generate multiple unconstrained random fields of spectral acceleration to perform Monte Carlo simulations. The random fields can be both spatially correlated or spatially uncorrelated.
- Read input files containing the characteristics of portfolios of policies (e.g. replacement value, deductible and limit by coverage) and databases of damage functions appropriate for each building typology included in the portfolios.
- Perform a Monte Carlo simulation for each random field of each rupture in the stochastic catalog to evaluate the ground-up losses for each property contained in the portfolio of policies considering the damage functions provided by the user.
- erform a Monte Carlo simulation for each random field of each rupture in the stochastic catalog to evaluate the gross losses from the ground-up losses for each property contained in the portfolio applying the policy conditions specified by the user.
- Provide the main loss metrics (e.g. average annual losses and exceedance probability curves) by policy or aggregate of policies for both ground-up and gross losses.
Probabilistic computation of earthquake hazard and losses for insurance portfolio in California
Computation of ground-up and gross losses for Californian building portfolios of a private insurance company
Development of a software platform for the probabilistic evaluation of earthquake hazard and losses
Earthquake risk assessment